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Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.
TL;DR - I will try and flip an account from $50 or less to $1,000 over 2019. I will post all my account details so my strategy can be seen/copied. I will do this using only three or four trading setups. All of which are simple enough to learn. I will start trading on 10th January.
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As I see it there are two mains ways to understand how to make money in the markets. The first is to know what the biggest winners in the markets are doing and duplicating what they do. This is hard. Most of the biggest players will not publicly tell people what they are doing. You need to be able to kinda slide in with them and see if you can pick up some info. Not suitable for most people, takes a lot of networking and even then you have to be able to make the correct inferences.
Another way is to know the most common trades of losing traders and then be on the other side of their common mistakes. This is usually far easier, usually everyone knows the mind of a losing trader. I learned about what losing traders do every day by being one of them for many years. I noticed I had an some sort of affinity for buying at the very top of moves and selling at the very bottom. This sucked, however, is was obvious there was winning trades on the other side of what I was doing and the adjustments to be a good trader were small (albeit, tricky).
Thus began the study for entries and maximum risk:reward. See, there have been times I have bought aiming for a 10 pip scalps and hit 100 pips stops loss. Hell, there have been times I was going for 5 pips and hit 100 stop out. This can seem discouraging, but it does mean there must be 1:10 risk:reward pay-off on the other side of these mistakes, and they were mistakes.
If you repeatedly enter and exit at the wrong times, you are making mistakes and probably the same ones over and over again. The market is tricking you! There are specific ways in which price moves that compel people to make these mistakes (I won’t go into this in this post, because it takes too long and this is going to be a long post anyway, but a lot of this is FOMO).
Making mistakes is okay. In fact, as I see it, making mistakes is an essential part of becoming an expert. Making a mistake enough times to understand intrinsically why it is a mistake and then make the required adjustments. Understanding at a deep level why you trade the way you do and why others make the mistakes they do, is an important part of becoming an expert in your chosen area of focus.
I could talk more on these concepts, but to keep the length of the post down, I will crack on to actual examples of trades I look for. Here are my three main criteria. I am looking for tops/bottoms of moves (edge entries). I am looking for 1:3 RR or more potential pay-offs. My strategy assumes that retail trades will lose most of the time. This seems a fair enough assumption. Without meaning to sound too crass about it, smart money will beat dumb money most of the time if the game is base on money. They just will.
So to summarize, I am looking for the points newbies get trapped in bad positions entering into moves too late. From these areas, I am looking for high RR entries.
Setup Examples.
I call this one the “Lightning Bolt correction”, but it is most commonly referred to as a “two leg correction”. I call it a “Lightning Bolt correction” because it looks a bit like one, and it zaps you. If you get it wrong.

https://preview.redd.it/t4whwijse2721.png?width=1326&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9050529c6e2472a3ff9f8e7137bd4a3ee5554cc
Once I see price making the first sell-off move and then begin to rally towards the highs again, I am waiting for a washout spike low. The common trades mistakes I am trading against here is them being too eager to buy into the trend too early and for the to get stopped out/reverse position when it looks like it is making another bearish breakout. Right at that point they panic … literally one candle under there is where I want to be getting in. I want to be buying their stop loss, essentially. “Oh, you don’t want that ...okay, I will have that!”
I need a precise entry. I want to use tiny stops (for big RR) so I need to be cute with entries. For this, I need entry rules. Not just arbitrarily buying the spike out. There are a few moving parts to this that are outside the scope of this post but one of my mains ways is using a fibs extension and looking for reversals just after the 1.61% level. How to draw the fibs is something else that is outside the scope of this but for one simple rule, they can be drawn on the failed new high leg.

https://preview.redd.it/2cd682kve2721.png?width=536&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d081c9faff49d0976f9ffab260aaed2b570309
I am looking for a few specific things for a prime setup. Firstly, I am looking for the false hope candles, the ones that look like they will reverse the market and let those buying too early get out break-even or even at profit. In this case, you can see the hammer and engulfing candle off the 127 level, then it spikes low in that “stop-hunt” sort of style.
Secondly I want to see it trading just past my entry level (161 ext). This rule has come from nothing other than sheer volume. The amount of times I’ve been stopped out by 1 pip by that little sly final low has gave birth to this rule. I am looking for the market to trade under support in a manner that looks like a new strong breakout. When I see this, I am looking to get in with tiny stops, right under the lows. I will also be using smaller charts at this time and looking for reversal clusters of candles. Things like dojis, inverted hammers etc. These are great for sticking stops under.
Important note, when the lightning bolt correction fails to be a good entry, I expect to see another two legs down. I may look to sell into this area sometimes, and also be looking for buying on another couple legs down. It is important to note, though, when this does not work out, I expect there to be continued momentum that is enough to stop out and reasonable stop level for my entry. Which is why I want to cut quick. If a 10 pips stop will hit, usually a 30 pips stop will too. Bin it and look for the next opportunity at better RR.

https://preview.redd.it/mhkgy35ze2721.png?width=1155&format=png&auto=webp&s=a18278b85b10278603e5c9c80eb98df3e6878232
Another setup I am watching for is harmonic patterns, and I am using these as a multi-purpose indicator. When I see potentially harmonic patterns forming, I am using their completion level as take profits, I do not want to try and run though reversal patterns I can see forming hours ahead of time. I also use them for entering (similar rules of looking for specific entry criteria for small stops). Finally, I use them as a continuation pattern. If the harmonic pattern runs past the area it may have reversed from, there is a high probability that the market will continue to trend and very basic trend following strategies work well. I learned this from being too stubborn sticking with what I thought were harmonic reversals only to be ran over by a trend (seriously, everything I know I know from how it used to make me lose).

https://preview.redd.it/1ytz2431f2721.png?width=1322&format=png&auto=webp&s=983a7f2a91f9195004ad8a2aa2bb9d4d6f128937
A method of spotting these sorts of M/W harmonics is they tend to form after a second spike out leg never formed. When this happens, it gives me a really good idea of where my profit targets should be and where my next big breakout level is. It is worth noting, larger harmonics using have small harmonics inside them (on lower time-frames) and this can be used for dialling in optimum entries. I also use harmonics far more extensively in ranging markets. Where they tend to have higher win rates.
Next setup is the good old fashioned double bottoms/double top/one tick trap sort of setup. This comes in when the market is highly over extended. It has a small sell-off and rallies back to the highs before having a much larger sell-off. This is a more risky trade in that it sells into what looks like trending momentum and can be stopped out more. However, it also pays a high RR when it works, allowing for it to be ran at reduced risk and still be highly profitable when it comes through.

https://preview.redd.it/1bx83776f2721.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c76c3085598ae70f4142d26c46c8d6e9b1c2881
From these sorts of moves, I am always looking for a follow up buy if it forms a lightning bolt sort of setup.
All of these setups always offer 1:3 or better RR. If they do not, you are doing it wrong (and it will be your stop placement that is wrong). This is not to say the target is always 1:3+, sometimes it is best to lock in profits with training stops. It just means that every time you enter, you can potentially have a trade that runs for many times more than you risked. 1:10 RR can be hit in these sorts of setups sometimes. Paying you 20% for 2% risked.
I want to really stress here that what I am doing is trading against small traders mistakes. I am not trying to “beat the market maker”. I am not trying to reverse engineer J.P Morgan’s black boxes. I do not think I am smart enough to gain a worthwhile edge over these traders. They have more money, they have more data, they have better softwares … they are stronger. Me trying to “beat the market maker” is like me trying to beat up Mike Tyson. I might be able to kick him in the balls and feel smug for a few seconds. However, when he gets up, he is still Tyson and I am still me. I am still going to be pummeled.
I’ve seen some people that were fairly bright people going into training courses and coming out dumb as shit. Thinking they somehow are now going to dominate Goldman Sachs because they learned a chart pattern. Get a grip. For real, get a fucking grip. These buzz phrases are marketeering. Realististically, if you want to win in the markets, you need to have an edge over somebody.
I don’t have edges on the banks. If I could find one, they’d take it away from me. Edges work on inefficiencies in what others do that you can spot and they can not. I do not expect to out-think a banks analysis team. I know for damn sure I can out-think a version of me from 5 years ago … and I know there are enough of them in the markets. I look to trade against them. I just look to protect myself from the larger players so they can only hurt me in limited ways. Rather than letting them corner me and beat me to a pulp (in the form of me watching $1,000 drop off my equity because I moved a stop or something), I just let them kick me in the butt as I run away. It hurts a little, but I will be over it soon.
I believe using these principles, these three simple enough edge entry setups, selectiveness (remembering you are trading against the areas people make mistakes, wait for they areas) and measured aggression a person can make impressive compounded gains over a year. I will attempt to demonstrate this by taking an account of under $100 to over $1,000 in a year. I will use max 10% on risk on a position, the risk will scale down as the account size increases. In most cases, 5% risk per trade will be used, so I will be going for 10-20% or so profits. I will be looking only for prime opportunities, so few trades but hard hitting ones when I take them.
I will start trading around the 10th January. Set remind me if you want to follow along. I will also post my investor login details, so you can see the trades in my account in real time. Letting you see when I place my orders and how I manage running positions.
I also think these same principles can be tweaked in such a way it is possible to flip $50 or so into $1,000 in under a month. I’ve done $10 to $1,000 in three days before. This is far more complex in trade management, though. Making it hard to explain/understand and un-viable for many people to copy (it hedges, does not comply with FIFO, needs 1:500 leverage and also needs spreads under half a pip on EURUSD - not everyone can access all they things). I see all too often people act as if this can’t be done and everyone saying it is lying to sell you something. I do not sell signals. I do not sell training. I have no dog in this fight, I am just saying it can be done. There are people who do it. If you dismiss it as impossible; you will never be one of them.
If I try this 10 times with $50, I probably am more likely to make $1,000 ($500 profit) in a couple months than standard ideas would double $500 - I think I have better RR, even though I may go bust 5 or more times. I may also try to demonstrate this, but it is kinda just show-boating, quite honestly. When it works, it looks cool. When it does not, I can go bust in a single day (see example https://www.fxblue.com/users/redditmicroflip).
So I may or may not try and demonstrate this. All this is, is just taking good basic concepts and applying accelerated risk tactics to them and hitting a winning streak (of far less trades than you may think). Once you have good entries and RR optimization in place - there really is no reason why you can not scale these up to do what may people call impossible (without even trying it).
I know there are a lot of people who do not think these things are possible and tend to just troll whenever people talk about these things. There used to be a time when I’d try to explain why I thought the way I did … before I noticed they only cared about telling me why they were right and discussion was pointless. Therefore, when it comes to replies, I will reply to all comments that ask me a question regarding why I think this can be done, or why I done something that I done. If you are commenting just to tell me all the reasons you think I am wrong and you are right, I will probably not reply. I may well consider your points if they are good ones. I just do not entering into discussions with people who already know everything; it serves no purpose.

Edit: Addition.

I want to talk a bit more about using higher percentage of risk than usual. Firstly, let me say that there are good reasons for risk caps that people often cite as “musts”. There are reasons why 2% is considered optimum for a lot of strategies and there are reasons drawing down too much is a really bad thing.
Please do not be ignorant of this. Please do not assume I am, either. In previous work I done, I was selecting trading strategies that could be used for investment. When doing this, my only concern was drawdown metrics. These are essential for professional money management and they are also essential for personal long-term success in trading.
So please do not think I have not thought of these sorts of things Many of the reasons people say these things can’t work are basic 101 stuff anyone even remotely committed to learning about trading learns in their first 6 months. Trust me, I have thought about these concepts. I just never stopped thinking when I found out what public consensus was.
While these 101 rules make a lot of sense, it does not take away from the fact there are other betting strategies, and if you can know the approximate win rate and pay-off of trades, you can have other ways of deriving optimal bet sizes (risk per trade). Using Kelly Criterion, for example, if the pay-off is 1:3 and there is a 75% chance of winning, the optimal bet size is 62.5%. It would be a viable (high risk) strategy to have extremely filtered conditions that looked for just one perfect set up a month, makingover 150% if it was successful.
Let’s do some math on if you can pull that off three months in a row (using 150% gain, for easy math). Start $100. Month two starts $250. Month three $625. Month three ends $1,562. You have won three trades. Can you win three trades in a row under these conditions? I don’t know … but don’t assume no-one can.
This is extremely high risk, let’s scale it down to meet somewhere in the middle of the extremes. Let’s look at 10%. Same thing, 10% risk looking for ideal opportunities. Maybe trading once every week or so. 30% pay-off is you win. Let’s be realistic here, a lot of strategies can drawdown 10% using low risk without actually having had that good a chance to generate 30% gains in the trades it took to do so. It could be argued that trading seldomly but taking 5* the risk your “supposed” to take can be more risk efficient than many strategies people are using.
I am not saying that you should be doing these things with tens of thousands of dollars. I am not saying you should do these things as long term strategies. What I am saying is do not dismiss things out of hand just because they buck the “common knowns”. There are ways you can use more aggressive trading tactics to turn small sums of money into they $1,000s of dollars accounts that you exercise they stringent money management tactics on.
With all the above being said, you do have to actually understand to what extent you have an edge doing what you are doing. To do this, you should be using standard sorts of risks. Get the basics in place, just do not think you have to always be basic. Once you have good basics in place and actually make a bit of money, you can section off profits for higher risk versions of strategies. The basic concepts of money management are golden. For longevity and large funds; learned them and use them! Just don’t forget to think for yourself once you have done that.

Update -

Okay, I have thought this through a bit more and decided I don't want to post my live account investor login, because it has my full name and I do not know who any of you are. Instead, for copying/observing, I will give demo account login (since I can choose any name for a demo).
I will also copy onto a live account and have that tracked via Myfxbook.
I will do two versions. One will be FIFO compliant. It will trade only single trade positions. The other will not be FIFO compliant, it will open trades in batches. I will link up live account in a week or so. For now, if anyone wants to do BETA testing with the copy trader, you can do so with the following details (this is the non-FIFO compliant version).

Account tracking/copying details.

Low-Medium risk.
IC Markets MT4
Account number: 10307003
Investor PW: lGdMaRe6
Server: Demo:01
(Not FIFO compliant)

Valid and Invalid Complaints.
There are a few things that can pop up in copy trading. I am not a n00b when it comes to this, so I can somewhat forecast what these will be. I can kinda predict what sort of comments there may be. Some of these are valid points that if you raise I should (and will) reply to. Some are things outside of the scope of things I can influence, and as such, there is no point in me replying to. I will just cover them all here the one time.

Valid complains are if I do something dumb or dramatically outside of the strategy I have laid out here. won't do these, if I do, you can pitchfork ----E

Examples;

“Oi, idiot! You opened a trade randomly on a news spike. I got slipped 20 pips and it was a shit entry”.
Perfectly valid complaint.

“Why did you open a trade during swaps hours when the spread was 30 pips?”
Also valid.

“You left huge trades open running into the weekend and now I have serious gap paranoia!”
Definitely valid.

These are examples of me doing dumb stuff. If I do dumb stuff, it is fair enough people say things amounting to “Yo, that was dumb stuff”.

Invalid Complains;

“You bought EURUSD when it was clearly a sell!!!!”
Okay … you sell. No-one is asking you to copy my trades. I am not trading your strategy. Different positions make a market.

“You opened a position too big and I lost X%”.
No. Na uh. You copied a position too big. If you are using a trade copier, you can set maximum risk. If you neglect to do this, you are taking 100% risk. You have no valid compliant for losing. The act of copying and setting the risk settings is you selecting your risk. I am not responsible for your risk. I accept absolutely no liability for any losses.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“You lost X trades in a row at X% so I lost too much”.
Nope. You copied. See above. Anything relating to losing too much in trades (placed in liquid/standard market conditions) is entirely you. I can lose my money. Only you can set it up so you can lose yours. I do not have access to your account. Only mine.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“Price keeps trading close to the pending limit orders but not filling. Your account shows profits, but mine is not getting them”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
* Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Buy limit orders will need to move up a little. Sell limit orders should not need adjusted.

“I got stopped out right before the market turned, I have a loss but your account shows a profit”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Stop losses on sell orders will need to move up a bit. Stops on buy orders will be fine.

“Your trade got stopped out right before the market turned, if it was one more pip in the stop, it would have been a winner!!!”
Yeah. This happens. This is where the “risk” part of “risk:reward” comes in.

“Price traded close to take profit, yours filled but mines never”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
(Side note, this should not be an issue since when my trade closes, it should ping your account to close, too. You might get a couple less pips).
*** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Take profits on buys will need to move up a bit. Sell take profits will be fine.

“My brokers spread jumped to 20 during the New York session so the open trade made a bigger loss than it should”.
Your broker might just suck if this happens. This is brokerage. I have no control over this. My trades are placed to profit from my brokerage conditions. I do not know, so can not account for yours. Also, if accounting for random spread spikes like this was something I had to do, this strategy would not be a thing. It only works with fair brokerage conditions.
*Suggested fix. Do a bit of Googling and find out if you have a horrific broker. If so, fix that! A good search phrase is; “(Broker name) FPA reviews”.

“Price hit the stop loss but was going really fast and my stop got slipped X pips”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
If my trade also got slipped on the stop, I was slipped using ECN conditions with excellent execution; sometimes slips just happen. I am doing the most I can to prevent them, but it is a fact of liquidity that sometimes we get slipped (slippage can also work in our favor, paying us more than the take profit would have been).

“Orders you placed failed to execute on my account because they were too large”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. Margin requirements vary. I have 1:500 leverage available. I will not always be using it, but I can. If you can’t, this will make a difference.

“Your account is making profits trading things my broker does not have”
I have a full range of assets to trade with the broker I use. Included Forex, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies. I may or may not use the extent of these options. I can not account for your brokerage conditions.

I think I have covered most of the common ones here. There are some general rules of thumb, though. Basically, if I do something that is dumb and would have a high probability of losing on any broker traded on, this is a valid complain.

Anything that pertains to risk taken in standard trading conditions is under your control.

Also, anything at all that pertains to brokerage variance there is nothing I can do, other than fully brief you on what to expect up-front. Since I am taking the time to do this, I won’t be a punchbag for anything that happens later pertaining to this.

I am not using an elitist broker. You don’t need $50,000 to open an account, it is only $200. It is accessible to most people - brokerage conditions akin to what I am using are absolutely available to anyone in the UK/Europe/Asia (North America, I am not so up on, so can’t say). With the broker I use, and with others. If you do not take the time to make sure you are trading with a good broker, there is nothing I can do about how that affects your trades.

I am using an A book broker, if you are using B book; it will almost certainly be worse results. You have bad costs. You are essentially buying from reseller and paying a mark-up. (A/B book AKA ECN/Market maker; learn about this here). My EURUSD spread will typically be 0.02 pips or so, if yours is 1 pip, this is a huge difference.
These are typical spreads I am working on.

https://preview.redd.it/yc2c4jfpab721.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=c377686b2485e13171318c9861f42faf325437e1


Check the full range of spreads on Forex, commodities, indices and crypto.

Please understand I want nothing from you if you benefit from this, but I am also due you nothing if you lose. My only term of offering this is that people do not moan at me if they lose money.

I have been fully upfront saying this is geared towards higher risk. I have provided information and tools for you to take control over this. If I do lose people’s money and I know that, I honestly will feel a bit sad about it. However, if you complain about it, all I will say is “I told you that might happen”, because, I am telling you that might happen.

Make clear headed assessments of how much money you can afford to risk, and use these when making your decisions. They are yours to make, and not my responsibility.

Update.

Crazy Kelly Compounding: $100 - $11,000 in 6 Trades.

$100 to $11,000 in 6 trades? Is it a scam? Is it a gamble? … No, it’s maths.

Common sense risk disclaimer: Don’t be a dick! Don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Do not risk money doing these things until you can show a regular profit on low risk.
Let’s talk about Crazy Kelly Compounding (CKC). Kelly criterion is a method for selecting optimal bet sizes if the odds and win rate are known (in other words, once you have worked out how to create and assess your edge). You can Google to learn about it in detail. The formula for Kelly criterion is;
((odds-1) * (percentage estimate)) - (1-percent estimate) / (odds-1) X 100
Now let’s say you can filter down a strategy to have a 80% win rate. It trades very rarely, but it had a very high success rate when it does. Let’s say you get 1:2 RR on that trade. Kelly would give you an optimum bet size of about 60% here. So if you win, you win 120%. Losing three trades in a row will bust you. You can still recover from anything less than that, fairly easily with a couple winning trades.
This is where CKC comes in. What if you could string some of these wins together, compounding the gains (so you were risking 60% each time)? What if you could pull off 6 trades in a row doing this?
Here is the math;

https://preview.redd.it/u3u6teqd7c721.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b958747b37b68ec2a769a8368b5cbebfe0e97ff
This shows years, substitute years for trades. 6 trades returns $11,338! This can be done. The question really is if you are able to dial in good enough entries, filter out enough sub-par trades and have the guts to pull the trigger when the time is right. Obviously you need to be willing to take the hit, obviously that hit gets bigger each time you go for it, but the reward to risk ratio is pretty decent if you can afford to lose the money.
We could maybe set something up to do this on cent brokers. So people can do it literally risking a couple dollars. I’d have to check to see if there was suitable spreads etc offered on them, though. They can be kinda icky.
Now listen, I am serious … don’t be a dick. Don’t rush out next week trying to retire by the weekend. What I am showing you is the EXTRA rewards that come with being able to produce good solid results and being able to section off some money for high risk “all or nothing” attempts; using your proven strategies.
I am not saying anyone can open 6 trades and make $11,000 … that is rather improbable. What I am saying is once you can get the strategy side right, and you can know your numbers; then you can use the numbers to see where the limits actually are, how fast your strategy can really go.
This CKC concept is not intended to inspire you to be reckless in trading, it is intended to inspire you to put focus on learning the core skills I am telling you that are behind being able to do this.
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forex [link] [comments]

What is price action trading methodology? Read this to find out.

MOST RECENT POST 1/16/19
I’d like to make this into a thread for others to learn about what price action trading is. I mainly trade the /es. I sometimes trade forex. I will add as much as possible to this thread in the most organized way possible.

1/15/2019 ENTRY
. WHAT IS A MARKET?
A market is a place where many individuals come together in order to find the best price possible for anything. Anything can be exchanged on a market. You can go to a farmers market nearby and you would ultimately be engaged in a market that is almost the same as buying and selling on the stock market. Everyone is trying to sell something and buy something for the best price possible. In terms of trading, you can buy and sell a variety of stuff. For example, currencies, stocks, futures contracts. You can even buy corn, soy beans, livestock, and oil on the futures market. You’d be surprised with everything that you are able to trade on the market. You are simply trying to buy or sell any given thing at the best price possible.
Why do markets exist?
Once again, markets are trying to find the best price possible. Markets exist in order to avoid being ripped off. Let’s look at some examples.
Example one is that you are trying to buy a house. You will go door-to-door asking people if they will sell you their house. Eventually you will find a house. That person will know that no one else is trying to sell a house. Since they do not feel any competition in selling, they will sell you the house at a very expensive price.
Now let’s look at situation two. You are attempting to sell your house. Imagine that a realtor did not exist. You would have to go door-to-door asking people if they wanted to buy your house. People would know that there is not a demand or a need to buy your house, so they would offer you the cheapest price possible.
In both of these situations, there is a middle man that could help avoid selling at the incorrect price or buying at the incorrect price. In the housing market, this is called a realtor. In trading , this is called a broker.
The job of the realtor is to find people that want to buy a house and people that want to sell a house. This will help with finding the correct house market value for the area where you live.
The job of a broker is to find people that want to buy a stock or sell a stock. The more people that are trying to buy or sell the stock, the closer that the stock will be to fair market value.
Trading markets and brokers solely exist for the reason of finding Many people that want to buy and sell on the market. This will in the end help find the best price possible for whatever you are trying to trade.
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1/16/19 ENTRY
Chart types and bar types

Chart types
There are a variety of different ways to graph the way that price moves around while the market is open. Remember the only reason why we are at the market is in order to get the best price possible. A graph has two axis. The X axis, and the Y axis.
Remember this from math class in high school? It's back to haunt you again lol.
The X axis (the horizontal bottom part of the graph can show us time, volume, range, or ticks. You are probably most familiar with time. This is where a bar is formed every X given time interval. For example, if you are looking at a 1 hour chart, the X axis will print a bar every 1 hour. There are also more chats like the tick chart. The tick chart will print a bar every x given ticks. For example, a 1000 tick chart will print a new bar on the chart every 1000 ticks. What is a tick? It is simply a a movement of price. Look at a bar chart on a one minute time frame. During the one minute when a bar is forming, it is moving up and down. Each up and down movement is a tick. a 1000 volume chart will form a new bar when 1000 shares are bought or sold.
The Y-axis (vertical line on the side of the graph), is basically price. Price tends to move in .25 cent intervals for future indices, pipettes in Forex, and .01 cents in stocks. Time charts, volume charts, tick charts, range charts. There are all showing the same y- axis, but the interval on the x-axis changes. None is better than the other. It is all personal preference and risk management. I'll get more into this later. For now, i'd stick to a 1,3, or 5 minute chart if I were to be day trading.

Bar types

There are many different types of bars. A bar can range from a bar, candle, line, to point and figure. I mainly use candles on a 5 minute graph. The benefit of bar and candle is that they show the open high low and close of the time period on the x-axis. The line graph only shows the closing price. There are tons of websites that teach how to read the basics of these bars for free. You should learn how to read their open, high, low, and close. LEARN THIS BEFORE YOU KEEP READING.

Many websites show Japanese candle sticks as having many types of names based on the shape that they make in relation to the bars next to them. This can work for some people, but I personally do not use them. I do not see how naming a pattern that a bar makes will help me get a win in the market.

A bar can be used to its most maximum and basic ability by indicating if its in a trend or range bar. A trend is basically when a market is going up or down with higher highs and lower lows ( more on this later). A range is basically when a market is not going up or not going down. It is just going side ways. (more on this later).

Here are some examples.

Trending bar
This bar is from a 5 minute chart. You can see it opened on its on its high, it then went down and closed on its low. The bar did not have any wicks or tails on it. This is indicating that on a lower time frame (e.g. 1 minute) there is a strong trend down.

Consolidation bar

This bar is from a 5 minute chart. Here you can see that the bar had a small body, and very large wicks. This is a Consolidation bar. On a lower time frame the market simply went sideways. It went up and down for 5 minutes. It then closed close to where it opened.

For me this is all I need to know about bars. I don't memorize bar names or any thing fancy like that. All I care about is if the market is trending or if the market is consolidating.


To wrap up charts, there are a few different types of chart types and bar types. I also introduced you to a basic understanding of consolidating markets, and trending markets. Also how you can see if it is consolidating or trending by just looking at a bar. I like to use candle sticks, and 5 minute charts.


More to come soon! Any feedback?
I DO NOT SELL A COURSE OR HAVE A WEBSITE ONLINE THAT IS ABOUT TRADING. IM AN INDEPENDENT TRADER. THIS POST WILL BE PURELY ALTRUISTIC.
submitted by jcthetrader to Daytrading [link] [comments]

New Beginner info / FAQ section for futures

I feel like with all the cheating and drama going on with spot fx we should at the very least have a dedicated section on the right for guidance on futures contracts.
The shady Cypriot brokers and ones on other random islands are lying and selling a dream so let's take a look at the reality of spot fx...
Currency markets are the most liquid and active markets of any sector. However, there is also a great deal of misinformation, slick advertising, and even outright deception regarding this $2 Trillion Dollar a Day marketplace. For starters, a large percentage of that $2 Trillion is traded through what is referred to as the interbank market. The interbank market is the top-level foreign exchange market where banks exchange different currencies. This trading between banks is not accessible to retail traders and is estimated to account for the vast majority of the Trillion Dollar liquidity factor that attracts so many retail traders in the first place.
Here are a few of the reasons to trade futures:
-Level playing field for all participants
-Deep liquidity on major currency contracts
-Safety and security of central clearing
If your Forex brokerage firm uses a dealing desk, your buy and sell orders never actually reach the true Forex market. In other words, you do not have access to the inter-bank market. Instead you are buying and selling at prices set, and potentially manipulated by the dealing desk. This is known as conflict of interest.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange guarantees each transaction. Futures contracts are legally binding! This means that if you go long a currency futures contract and your speculation was correct, you will walk away from the trade with your profit even if the person that took the other side of the trade fails to pay. This is what we call counterparty risk.
Take a moment, have a break and take a look at all the horror stories on forex factory, for instance.
Whether you are a large institution or an individual trader, everyone is on equal footing when it comes to pricing currency futures. EVERYBODY gets the same price regardless of who you are (individual or mega bank). Best price wins, it is as simple as that — something that is not always the case in the fragmented OTC FX market. The spreads are also very tight if you trade liquid future contracts.
Spot fx brokers also control their price feeds. They can widen the spreads as they see fit and they can really screw you over if they want to. Believe me when I say that most fx brokers don't want you to win! Even the ones that claim to have liquidity providers... Those are nothing but price feeds. Quotes. Nothing more....
And Forex firms offering a "fixed" 3-5 point spread may not be charging traders commission outright, or even in a form that shows up on an account statement, but there are significant costs built into the synthetic market that they provide to you.
No middle man, no market maker. Yes, Forex is an electronic market, but your order still ends up on a "dealing desk" where a human handles your order. Or an algorithm... Basically, a Market Maker. He could make you or break you. With E-mini Futures you have a level playing field. You trade on a centralised and CFTC regulated exchange. Whether you're Goldman Sachs or Joe from Idaho, you get equal treatment!
If you're worried about Liquidity - 1.5-3m contracts trade hands everyday on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Contract. If you want in or out of a position, there is almost always someone waiting and willing to take the other side of your trade (24/5) just 1 tick away. This simply isn't true for all Forex Pairs.
Low Cost of Doing Business - Commissions on a self directed SP500 E-mini Trade (ES) should be no more than $3.00 per side or $6.00 per round turn. While many Forex Brokers tout "Zero Commission", we all know there's no free lunch. Forex Brokers don't need to charge a commission because they make money off of the bid/ask spread "they create" and then take the other side of your trade. Run the numbers... for every $100 in profits or loss, you will spend a larger % in "cost of doing business" in the Forex Market than you will in the S&P E-mini Market. Don't take my word for it... go take some real trades and you'll quickly see the truth.
Zero Interest - If you you trade the ES intraday, expect to put up $500 per contract as a "bond" for lack of a better term. That's it. No hidden cost. Forex however, has a "cost of carry" associated which means interest may be charged or paid on positions taken.
Fiduciary Responsibility - Even regulated US Forex firms are not required to segregate customer funds. If a regulated firm goes under, you do not have the protection of the CFTC and the NFA as you do in the Futures Markets.
Turn ON The Volume Please - In Forex, since there is no centralised exchange, it is impossible to get a true read on volume. Not so with the S&P 500 "ES" E-mini. Simply turn on the volume indicator and you have exact numbers for Volume Analysis. GS and CITI have huge research departments with hundreds of employees, but they know nothing about volume that you don't know via a free indicator on your direct access trading platform. Just one more example of the level playing field we constantly speak of.
Centralised Clearing - All trades are cleared via the CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All trades, including time and sales, are public information and posted in real time.
Edit: By the way, if you're worried about discrepancies, currency futures charts look almost exactly the same as their spot fx siblings! So you can easily apply your current strategy to this market, too!
A great example would be "M6E" vs "EUUSD"
SO GUYS, LET'S ACCEPT REALITY AND LET'S DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. DO YOU AGREE?
Source: cfrn.net
submitted by Fighterboy89 to Forex [link] [comments]

Auto-trading fun with Bollinger bands [Novice level].

Whilst we have a fair few 'novice' posts about TA and Global Macro (aka "Fundamentals"), there aren't too many involving auto-trading. Seeing as I'm in the middle of teaching myself MQL4, I thought I'd throw this out there as discussion prompter.
By "novice", I mean someone who has moved beyond complete beginner ("what's a FOMC and a NFP?") but still not deploying robust and market ready strategies ("how does market structure affect news event response?"), so constructive criticism, informed commentary or taking the ideas and developing them further are very much the point of sharing in the first place. It's not meant to be a showcase of code, because the code is a mess!
This post got me thinking about how relatively trivial it would be to implement a Bollinger Band mean reversion autotrader.
Project Goals
My interest in the project was as a way to begin development of a skeleton EA that would use a custom indicator to implement trade signals. The point of this would be to allow for faster prototyping of visually based autotrading before taking it to the testing environment. The key advantage of this is that you can see on your charts which entries are being missed, something that is much more laborious to do via visual mode in the strategy tester.
Concept Development
So to begin the project, I sketched out the concept.
One way to trade Bollinger Bands is to trade the reversion to the mean. Intuitively, we expect that wider deviations from the mean will result in more reliable reversions to the mean. To explore this we could enter when price breaches the second SD band and then returns back inside it.
Here's the default Bollinger Band on default settings in MT4, demonstrating this sort of behaviour:
http://i.imgur.com/dK2oDO7.png
Prototyping
I want to use the indicator, and not the EA, to generate trade signals, as this is the point of the project for me. Because I'm lazy and grew up coding in basements, I opt to fiddle with the default indicator code rather than build up from scratch.
My first goal is to add two things.
Firstly, I want to add another layer of bands, because I saw a set up like that a while ago and liked it. (This is not a very good reason, and I think it costs me down the track).
Secondly, I want to add in a way to visually indicate the trade signals before we pass them to the EA.
Adding another set of bands is just a copy and paste of the existing bands. My learning point here is that I need to adjust the amount of buffers to match the number of bands I want. This comes into play for adding the trade signal arrows, as they need to go in the same sort of structure as the second lot of bands.
[I know from reading about the project goals in advance that EAs access custom indicators via iCustom(). This function can only receive the contents of one of the first 8 indicator buffers. Thus the idea will be that the buffer that marks out the trade entries on the indicator will later be used by the EA to mark out where entries should be. It's possible this is not the best way for EAs to access custom indicators , so input from more experienced coders is welcome!]
#property indicator_chart_window #property indicator_buffers 8 // <---- have to set this to match your copy and pasted buffer amount #property indicator_color1 LightSeaGreen #property indicator_color2 LightSeaGreen #property indicator_color3 LightSeaGreen // hack in (make 'em colourful. Turns out I didn't understand how the numbering worked, and indictator_color4 is never visualised) #property indicator_color4 clrWhite #property indicator_color5 clrWhite #property indicator_color6 clrRed #property indicator_color7 clrGreen #property indicator_color8 clrRed //--- indicator parameters input int InpBandsPeriod=50; // Bands Period input int InpBandsShift=0; // Bands Shift input double InpBandsInnerDeviations=1.0; // Add in for our other Band input double InpBandsOuterDeviations=2.0; // Bands Deviations //--- buffers double ExtMovingBuffer[]; double ExtUpperBuffer[]; double ExtLowerBuffer[]; double ExtStdDevBuffer[]; // hack in buffers (these buffers will store our trade signals) double SellSignalBuffer[]; double BuySignalBuffer[]; // these buffers will hold the additional bands. apologies for the naming, I didn't originally intend to share this double ExtUpperUpperBuffer[]; double ExtLowerLowerBuffer[]; //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Custom indicator initialization function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ int OnInit(void) { //--- 1 additional buffer used for counting. IndicatorBuffers(8); // don't forget to adjust this to account for the new buffers IndicatorDigits(Digits); //--- middle line SetIndexStyle(0,DRAW_LINE); SetIndexBuffer(0,ExtMovingBuffer); SetIndexShift(0,InpBandsShift); SetIndexLabel(0,"Bands SMA"); //--- upper band SetIndexStyle(1,DRAW_LINE); SetIndexBuffer(1,ExtUpperBuffer); SetIndexShift(1,InpBandsShift); SetIndexLabel(1,"Bands Upper"); //--- lower band SetIndexStyle(2,DRAW_LINE); SetIndexBuffer(2,ExtLowerBuffer); SetIndexShift(2,InpBandsShift); SetIndexLabel(2,"Bands Lower"); SetIndexBuffer(3,ExtStdDevBuffer); //--- Copy and paste from above, and just change the number! Upper outer band is INDEX 4 SetIndexStyle(4,DRAW_LINE); SetIndexBuffer(4,ExtUpperUpperBuffer); SetIndexShift(4,InpBandsShift); SetIndexLabel(4,"Bands Outer Upper"); //--- Copy& paste, lower outer band is INDEX 5 SetIndexStyle(5,DRAW_LINE); SetIndexBuffer(5,ExtLowerLowerBuffer); SetIndexShift(5,InpBandsShift); SetIndexLabel(5,"Bands Outer Lower"); //--- remind myself which is which so I don't forget later: sell signal is INDEX 6!!!! SetIndexStyle(6,DRAW_ARROW); SetIndexArrow(6,218); SetIndexBuffer(6,SellSignalBuffer); SetIndexShift(6,InpBandsShift); SetIndexLabel(6,"Sell Signal"); //--- buy signal is INDEX 7 !!! SetIndexStyle(7,DRAW_ARROW); SetIndexArrow(7,217); SetIndexBuffer(7,BuySignalBuffer); SetIndexShift(7,InpBandsShift); SetIndexLabel(7,"Buy Signal"); //--- check for input parameter if(InpBandsPeriod<=0) { Print("Wrong input parameter Bands Period=",InpBandsPeriod); return(INIT_FAILED); } //--- SetIndexDrawBegin(0,InpBandsPeriod+InpBandsShift); SetIndexDrawBegin(1,InpBandsPeriod+InpBandsShift); SetIndexDrawBegin(2,InpBandsPeriod+InpBandsShift); // hack in our additional buffers, so they also start at the corect point SetIndexDrawBegin(4,InpBandsPeriod+InpBandsShift); SetIndexDrawBegin(5,InpBandsPeriod+InpBandsShift); SetIndexDrawBegin(6,InpBandsPeriod+InpBandsShift); SetIndexDrawBegin(7,InpBandsPeriod+InpBandsShift); //--- initialization done return(INIT_SUCCEEDED); } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Bollinger Bands | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ // all of this code is from the default indicator int OnCalculate(const int rates_total, const int prev_calculated, const datetime &time[], const double &open[], const double &high[], const double &low[], const double &close[], const long &tick_volume[], const long &volume[], const int &spread[]) { int i,pos; //--- if(rates_total<=InpBandsPeriod || InpBandsPeriod<=0) { return(0); } //--- counting from 0 to rates_total ArraySetAsSeries(ExtMovingBuffer,false); ArraySetAsSeries(ExtUpperBuffer,false); ArraySetAsSeries(ExtLowerBuffer,false); ArraySetAsSeries(ExtStdDevBuffer,false); // hack in to make sure our custom buffers run in the same direction ArraySetAsSeries(SellSignalBuffer,false); ArraySetAsSeries(ExtUpperUpperBuffer,false); ArraySetAsSeries(ExtLowerLowerBuffer,false); ArraySetAsSeries(BuySignalBuffer,false); ArraySetAsSeries(close,false); ArraySetAsSeries(high,false); ArraySetAsSeries(low,false); //--- initial zero if(prev_calculated<1) { for(i=0; i1) pos=prev_calculated-1; else pos=0; //--- main cycle for(i=pos; i After a bit of tweaking typos, the indicator now displays two sets of bands, one at 1x SD and one at 2xSD from the mean (moving average). It also has two buffers that will use the DRAW_ARROW style to mark out potential trades.
Adding trade logic
I still can't decide if it's better to isolate the logic code in the Custom Indicator or the EA, in the long run. There seem to be performative, stylistic and redundancy issues, but for the moment the project is to put the logic in the Indicator, so that's what I did.
The fastest way to prototype this idea seems to be identifying when price closes outside of the far band.
This is trivial to achieve. We compare the close to the two outer bands, and if it's outside them, then we set the relevant trade signal buffer.
//
 double tempclose = close[i]; if(tempclose>(ExtUpperUpperBuffer[i]+10*Point)) { SellSignalBuffer[i] = high[i]+(20* Point); } else { SellSignalBuffer[i] = 0; } if(tempclose<(ExtLowerLowerBuffer[i]-10*Point)) { BuySignalBuffer[i] = low[i]-(20*Point); } else { BuySignalBuffer[i]=0; } } 
It works!
http://i.imgur.com/Ak3UkkK.png
Green arrows successfully mark out possible sell entries where price closes above the top band, and red arrows mark out possible buy entries when price closes below the lower band.
The logic can be a lot more complicated than this obviously, but the point of my project is to develop the iCustom technique, rather than make a good autotrader.
Now it's time to switch to the EA.
part two to follow
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

Lessons from the world of currency trading

Ever since college I have been fascinated by this mysterious world of currencies trading (also known as FOREX). The great attraction for me was obviously the money, the huge potential for profit, but also the exclusiveness of being a trader. I always thought that trading attracts a certain breed of people, where only the best of the best succeed. And, as I always thought of myself as being one of the best, I set myself an objective of becoming a successful trader.
You might ask why I chose to trade currencies. To be honest, I was lured in by the very low entry barriers ( at that point in time, it took close to $500 to open an account; now you can open a live account for as little as $50) and the huge potential to the upside, thanks to leverage. Next I embarked on a paid forex course that opened my eyes to the possibilities that were out there. I opened my first demo account, read my first charts and plotted my first indicators. A new world was taking shape and I was getting more and more attracted to it. But the final argument that convinced me was the fact the forex was the biggest and the most liquid market in the world, with over $5 trillion in daily volumes and the opportunities were all around, to the buy side and to the sell side.
It didn’t take long for me to join the ranks of rookie traders who are so eager to earn some money trading that they go in the markets unprepared and leave with their pockets empty. I’ve spent a couple months playing on a simulator, trying to participate in free contests, but eventually my patience ran out. I blew out a few real-money accounts while in college. Luckily for me, I did not lose too much money, but hey, I was a student and everything I saved went into my trading passion. So needless to say, that was all I had. First lesson to be learned from here: don’t invest money you do not afford to lose. While I believe the money I lost to be a fair tuition for learning the ropes in currency trading, I still could have done a lot better just by practicing more on my demo account.
Nevertheless, I was perseverant in trying to make it in trading. I did not let myself down by the losses I incurred, but I embraced them and got more motivated. After all, if you really want something, then you should do everything in your power to achieve it. When I managed to save some money again to invest in trading, I set my goal to not lose money. I realized by then that another important lesson is to be in the markets at all times. The best way to gain an edge in the market is to be a part of it at all times.
No matter how much I struggled to get my balance up, it seemed that I could not lift my account off the ground (remember I used to fund my account with only a couple hundred dollars and use leverage to trade). I could not offset all the small losses and commissions with my winning trades. Pressure was building up and mistakes took place more often. It took me a couple of years to understand that undercapitalization can “kill” you in the markets. Leverage is an incredible weapon for those who know how to use it, but in the hands of a rookie it is a ticking bomb. Small accounts with high leverage blow up incredibly fast, as rookie mistakes are being exacerbated by the effects of the leverage. Always make sure to have enough risk capital in your account. As it turned out, all my efforts to make it in the financial trading world did actually pay off, even though not as I first imagined it would. I eventually landed a job with a prop trading firm. Here is where things got really interesting and I have exponentially boosted my knowledge. I cannot stress enough how important it is to be among peers that have the same passion as you do, who are professional and have the competitive mindset that will push you to outperform yourself. Of course not everybody is lucky enough (or maybe don’t even want to) to land a trading job, but if you really want to make it in trading you should spend more time on trading forums. Share ideas, compare performances, get your motivation up. Seeing others do it and being successful at it will push you higher than you could imagine.
It all started out as a college hobby and it transformed itself into a career. I just gave it my time, dedication and perseverance. For all of those thinking about starting their journey in trading I say do it with an open heart. It is the most rewarding activity you could ever do. It gives you the freedom you always dreamed of. At least that’s what it felt like for me.
If you’re ready to open your own trading account, make sure you take the shortcut and use the advice given in these lines. Stay motivated, well capitalized, always in the markets, gain your edge and enjoy the ride. You will also need a trusted broker to partner with. Forex broker has great offers for new accounts that could definitely help you start off on the right foot. Just remember the basics and you’ll be fine!
submitted by dwaynebuzzell to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Forex Volume Indicator - Our Oxygen Meter - YouTube Forex tick volume strategy Trading System indicator ... Best Volume Indicators You Can't Afford To Miss (Volume ... How to get tick volume alerts for #forex traders using #Metatrader 4 Identify Reversals in Forex - Tick Volume Indicator for MetaTrader MT4 with Email Alerts Volume in Forex - YouTube

The best tick indicator of volumes “Better volume” 17.08.2019. Content: tick volumes on Forex MetaTrader (MT4, MT5); Better Volume indicator description; how to set up better volume; examples of using; where to download the official version without viruses. Tick volumes on Forex MetaTrader (MT4, MT5) Tick volume – the quantity of changes in the price of the instrument by one base point ... Below we describe the most popular Forex volume indicators, and also explain why Volume Zone Oscillator is the best volume indicator in trading. See also what brokers with a minimum spread are. Types of volume indicators for MT4. There are a huge number of volume indicators. Here we have compiled the most commonly used types of Forex volume ... Forex volume indicator in Technical Analysis. The popular MetaTrader 4 has several forex volume indicators to provide insight on price movement. Here, let us explore some of the best forex volume indicators in MT4. Money Flow Index (MFI) Money flow index is the rate at which money flows through a particular currency or withdraws from it. Most ... The Volume Profile represents the traded volume of specific price levels. The Volume Profile thus provides a deeper insight into the current positioning of market participants. This concept can only be used in futures trading with high-quality tick-by-tick data. Tick Volume To The Rescue. Fortunately, there is a way around to replace this shortcoming. What if you could add a ‘non-lagging’ indicator that would allow you to make better-informed ... Related MetaTrader Indicators. SVE ZigZag Ticks Indicator; Volume X3 DA TT Indicator; Volume RV MTF Indicator; Tick's Profile Market MTF Indicator; Volume OCLH MTF Indicator Quite often, I get requests from Forex traders to implement this or that indicator or expert advisor that applies tick volume to analyze or trade currency pair. Tick volume that is present in every MetaTrader platform is based on the number of price updates (ticks) that come during the formation of a given bar. At first glance, it seems to be a good approximation of real volume, but in reality ...

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Forex Volume Indicator - Our Oxygen Meter - YouTube

I feel bad for trend traders who don't have a good volume indicator. How else do they know when the odds are in their favor? Would you rather know this, or be... Tap to unmute. If playback doesn't begin shortly, try restarting your device. You're signed out. Videos you watch may be added to the TV's watch history and influence TV recommendations. To avoid... https://www.fxalgotrader.com FX AlgoTrader Tick Volume Indicator and Alert System for #Metatrader 4. System produces an audible tick volume alert when tick volume reaches a trader defined threshold. Demonstration of the FX AlgoTrader Tick Volume Alert indicator for MetaTrader MT4. www.fxalgotrader.com. Product Page is available here: http://www.fxalgotra... Volume-based trading is the technique of assessing the health of a trend based on volume activity. Discover the best volume indicators to incorporate in your... Forex tick volume strategy Trading System indicator Scalping . HOW TO EARN 7,000 DOLLARS PER WEEK; 98 videos; 5 views; Updated today Best volume indicator for forex [ OBV ] This volume trading strategy uses two very powerful techniques that you won’t see written anywhere else. These are tr...

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